بررسی پیامدهای خشک‌سالی در سطح مزرعه: مطالعه موردی منطقه مرودشت

Drought is among the most costly weather-related events and Iran is highly vulnerable to the economic, social and environmental impacts of drought In this study expected profit maximization model and utility efficient programming were applied to determine optimal crop pattern, expected gross margin and water use with and without, drought condition at representative farms of homogenous groups. This study was based on two databases. A sample of 180 farmers was selected for interview and collected necessary farm level data in 2007. The sample farms were drawn using two-stage stratified random sampling method. Results indicated that the largest reduction in expected profit is directed toward farmers who use surface water from river or canal. These groups of farms ultimately suffered a severe reduction in expected income (53%-64%) as a consequence of the drought, largely because their access to water was cut substantially. The least quantity of damage is directed toward homogenous groups of farms that use groundwater or conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water. Reduction in expected income of these groups is equal to 7 and 32 percent of expected income in the normal year, respectively. Finally, the results showed that the pattern of release water from gate of Drodzan have not been optimal in the planting years 2001-2002 and 2006-2007 based on the calculated shadow price of each cubic meter water in different deciles of year.